{"id":139298,"date":"2026-07-16T09:42:22","date_gmt":"2026-07-16T06:42:22","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/realitatearutiera.ro\/?p=139298"},"modified":"2026-07-16T09:42:25","modified_gmt":"2026-07-16T06:42:25","slug":"carburantii-s-ar-putea-scumpi-din-nou-scenariile-prezentate-de-dumitru-chisalita-privind-pretul-benzinei-si-al-motorinei","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/realitatearutiera.ro\/?p=139298","title":{"rendered":"Carburan\u021bii s-ar putea scumpi din nou. Scenariile prezentate de Dumitru Chis\u0103li\u021b\u0103 privind pre\u021bul benzinei \u0219i al motorinei"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Din cuprinsul articolului<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul id=\"menuTabela\" class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.capital.ro\/lovitura-pentru-soferi-cat-ar-putea-costa-benzina-si-motorina-in-perioada-urmatoare-scenariile-prezentate-de-dumitru-chisalita-aei.html#evolutia-petrolului-depinde-de-conflictul-din-orientul-mijlociu\">Evolu\u021bia petrolului depinde de conflictul din Orientul Mijlociu<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.capital.ro\/lovitura-pentru-soferi-cat-ar-putea-costa-benzina-si-motorina-in-perioada-urmatoare-scenariile-prezentate-de-dumitru-chisalita-aei.html#cum-ar-putea-evolua-preturile-carburantilor-in-romania\">Cum ar putea evolua pre\u021burile carburan\u021bilor \u00een Rom\u00e2nia<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.capital.ro\/lovitura-pentru-soferi-cat-ar-putea-costa-benzina-si-motorina-in-perioada-urmatoare-scenariile-prezentate-de-dumitru-chisalita-aei.html#motorina-ar-putea-depasi-pragul-de-10-lei-pe-litru\">Motorina ar putea dep\u0103\u0219i pragul de 10 lei pe litru<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Tensiunile din Orientul Mijlociu \u0219i riscurile privind aprovizionarea cu petrol continu\u0103 s\u0103 fie principalul factor urm\u0103rit de investitori, \u00eens\u0103 efectele asupra carburan\u021bilor din Rom\u00e2nia ar putea deveni vizibile abia \u00een urm\u0103toarele s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2ni. Pre\u0219edintele Asocia\u021biei Energia Inteligent\u0103 (AEI), Dumitru Chis\u0103li\u021b\u0103, avertizeaz\u0103 c\u0103, dac\u0103 actualul conflict se prelunge\u0219te, iar dolarul american continu\u0103 s\u0103 se aprecieze, pre\u021burile la pomp\u0103 ar putea urca semnificativ, exist\u00e2nd chiar posibilitatea ca motorina s\u0103 ating\u0103 pragul de 10 lei pe litru \u00een luna septembrie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" 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alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"evolutia-petrolului-depinde-de-conflictul-din-orientul-mijlociu\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.capital.ro\/lovitura-pentru-soferi-cat-ar-putea-costa-benzina-si-motorina-in-perioada-urmatoare-scenariile-prezentate-de-dumitru-chisalita-aei.html#evolutia-petrolului-depinde-de-conflictul-din-orientul-mijlociu\">Evolu\u021bia petrolului depinde de conflictul din Orientul Mijlociu<\/a><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Potrivit analizei realizate de D<a href=\"https:\/\/asociatiaenergiainteligenta.ro\/motorina-ar-putea-trece-din-nou-de-10-lei-litru-daca-conflictul-din-golf-escaladeaza-analiza-scenariilor-pentru-piata-carburantilor-din-romania\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">umitru Chis\u0103li\u021b\u0103,<\/a>&nbsp;pia\u021ba petrolului traverseaz\u0103 o perioad\u0103 diferit\u0103 fa\u021b\u0103 de \u00eenceputul anului. De\u0219i conflictul din zona Golfului Persic men\u021bine un nivel ridicat de incertitudine, investitorii consider\u0103 \u00een continuare c\u0103 exist\u0103 suficiente mecanisme pentru a evita un \u0219oc imediat asupra aprovizion\u0103rii globale.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Expertul atrage \u00eens\u0103 aten\u021bia c\u0103 rezervele strategice sunt mai reduse dec\u00e2t \u00een urm\u0103 cu c\u00e2teva luni, iar Str\u00e2mtoarea Hormuz r\u0103m\u00e2ne unul dintre cele mai sensibile puncte ale comer\u021bului mondial cu energie, prin aceast\u0103 rut\u0103 fiind transportat\u0103 aproximativ o cincime din consumul global de<a href=\"https:\/\/www.capital.ro\/pret-carburanti-16-iulie-2026-cat-costa-astazi-benzina-si-motorina-in-romania-suma-achitata-pentru-un-plin.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">&nbsp;petrol<\/a>&nbsp;\u0219i din comer\u021bul mondial cu gaze naturale lichefiate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00cen opinia sa, riscul geopolitic \u00eencepe s\u0103 fie inclus direct \u00een pre\u021bul petrolului, nu doar ca o amenin\u021bare temporar\u0103, ci ca un cost structural al pie\u021bei.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>Dumitru Chis\u0103li\u021b\u0103: \u201e\u00cen aceast\u0103 s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2n\u0103, nu estimez modific\u0103ri importante ale pre\u021burilor la benzin\u0103 \u0219i motorin\u0103 \u00een Rom\u00e2nia. Media cota\u021biilor interna\u021bionale ale petrolului din ultimele s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2ni nu au crescut suficient de nivelurile actuale pentru a produce ajust\u0103ri vizibile la pomp\u0103.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00cen urm\u0103toarele dou\u0103 s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2ni, scenariul cel mai probabil este ca Brent s\u0103 evolueze \u00eentr-un interval cuprins \u00eentre 85 \u0219i 90 dolari\/baril. At\u00e2t timp c\u00e2t nu apare un eveniment major \u2013 precum blocarea aproape complet\u0103 a traficului prin Hormuz, lovirea unor mari terminale petroliere sau extinderea conflictului asupra principalilor produc\u0103tori din Golf \u2013 pia\u021ba va continua probabil s\u0103 alterneze perioadele de tensiune cu cele de aparent\u0103 calmare.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00cen acest moment AEI estimeaz\u0103 urm\u0103toarea distribu\u021bie a probabilit\u0103\u021bilor \u00een urm\u0103toarele 2 s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2ni:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>60% \u0219anse ca Brent s\u0103 r\u0103m\u00e2n\u0103 \u00eentre 85 \u0219i 90 USD\/baril;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>30% \u0219anse pentru o urcare \u00een intervalul 90-100 USD\/baril;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>10% \u0219anse pentru dep\u0103\u0219irea pragului psihologic de 100 USD\/baril.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"cum-ar-putea-evolua-preturile-carburantilor-in-romania\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.capital.ro\/lovitura-pentru-soferi-cat-ar-putea-costa-benzina-si-motorina-in-perioada-urmatoare-scenariile-prezentate-de-dumitru-chisalita-aei.html#cum-ar-putea-evolua-preturile-carburantilor-in-romania\">Cum ar putea evolua pre\u021burile carburan\u021bilor \u00een Rom\u00e2nia<\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Analiza&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.capital.ro\/romania-risca-efectele-unui-rating-junk-analiza-aei-arata-cum-s-ar-putea-scumpi-energia-pana-in-2035.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">AEI<\/a>&nbsp;arat\u0103 c\u0103, pe termen de una-dou\u0103 luni, impactul asupra \u0219oferilor rom\u00e2ni nu va depinde doar de cota\u021bia petrolului, ci \u0219i de evolu\u021bia dolarului american. Rom\u00e2nia import\u0103 petrol \u0219i produse petroliere tranzac\u021bionate aproape exclusiv \u00een dolari, astfel c\u0103 orice apreciere a monedei americane se reflect\u0103 \u00een costurile de achizi\u021bie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Totodat\u0103, \u00een pre\u021bul carburan\u021bilor intr\u0103 \u0219i accizele, TVA-ul, costurile de rafinare, transport \u0219i distribu\u021bie, ceea ce face ca evolu\u021bia de la pomp\u0103 s\u0103 fie influen\u021bat\u0103 de mai mul\u021bi factori simultan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Dumitru Chis\u0103li\u021b\u0103 explic\u0103 scenariul luat \u00een calcul de Asocia\u021bia Energia Inteligent\u0103:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201eScenariul cel mai probabil presupune un Brent \u00eentre 95 \u0219i 105 USD\/baril \u0219i un curs USD\/RON \u00een intervalul 4,6-4,7 lei\/USD.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00cen acest scenariu, \u00een urm\u0103toarele dou\u0103 s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2ni benzina ar putea urca c\u0103tre 8,75-8,80 lei\/litru, iar motorina c\u0103tre 9,60-9,70 lei\/litru.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00cen aproximativ o lun\u0103, benzina ar putea ajunge \u00een intervalul 9,00-9,10 lei\/litru, \u00een timp ce motorina ar putea fi comercializat\u0103 \u00eentre 9,90 \u0219i 10,00 lei\/litru.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Dac\u0103 tensiunile persist\u0103 timp de dou\u0103 luni, estimarea AEI indic\u0103 valori de aproximativ 9,10-9,40 lei\/litru pentru benzin\u0103 \u0219i 10,05-10,25 lei\/litru pentru motorin\u0103.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"motorina-ar-putea-depasi-pragul-de-10-lei-pe-litru\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.capital.ro\/lovitura-pentru-soferi-cat-ar-putea-costa-benzina-si-motorina-in-perioada-urmatoare-scenariile-prezentate-de-dumitru-chisalita-aei.html#motorina-ar-putea-depasi-pragul-de-10-lei-pe-litru\">Motorina ar putea dep\u0103\u0219i pragul de 10 lei pe litru<\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00cen analiza sa, Dumitru Chis\u0103li\u021b\u0103 consider\u0103 c\u0103 evolu\u021bia dolarului&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.capital.ro\/romania-si-serbia-fac-primul-pas-pentru-proiectul-portile-de-fier-3-proiectul-este-estimat-la-peste-263-miliarde-de-euro.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">american<\/a>&nbsp;poate avea un impact chiar mai mare dec\u00e2t cel al petrolului asupra pre\u021burilor practicate \u00een Rom\u00e2nia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201e\u00cen opinia AEI, pia\u021ba subestimeaz\u0103 impactul cursului valutar. Dac\u0103 petrolul cre\u0219te cu aproximativ 20%, iar dolarul se apreciaz\u0103 simultan cu \u00eenc\u0103 8-10% fa\u021b\u0103 de leu, costul exprimat \u00een moneda na\u021bional\u0103 pentru importatori poate urca cu aproape 30%, \u00eenainte de includerea costurilor logistice, comerciale \u0219i fiscale.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>Potrivit estim\u0103rilor AEI, pentru luna septembrie exist\u0103 o probabilitate de 55% ca motorina s\u0103 fie comercializat\u0103 \u00eentre 9,70 \u0219i 9,90 lei\/litru, o probabilitate de 30% ca pre\u021bul s\u0103 ajung\u0103 \u00eentre 10,05 \u0219i 10,25 lei\/litru \u0219i o probabilitate de 15% ca pragul de 10,25 lei\/litru s\u0103 fie dep\u0103\u0219it, scenariu care ar presupune o escaladare militar\u0103 major\u0103 \u0219i perturb\u0103ri importante ale fluxurilor mondiale de petrol.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00cen concluzie, Dumitru Chis\u0103li\u021b\u0103 apreciaz\u0103 c\u0103 perspectivele r\u0103m\u00e2n orientate spre noi scumpiri ale carburan\u021bilor \u00een urm\u0103toarele una-dou\u0103 luni \u0219i subliniaz\u0103 c\u0103, pentru Rom\u00e2nia, evolu\u021bia combinat\u0103 a cota\u021biei petrolului Brent \u0219i a dolarului american va fi factorul decisiv \u00een stabilirea pre\u021burilor la pomp\u0103.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Sursa: capital<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Din cuprinsul articolului Tensiunile din Orientul Mijlociu \u0219i riscurile privind aprovizionarea cu petrol continu\u0103 s\u0103 fie principalul factor urm\u0103rit de<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":134183,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"spay_email":"","footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":""},"categories":[82],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-139298","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-auto"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/realitatearutiera.ro\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Benzina-si-motorina-e1699349440269.jpg?fit=2000%2C1126&ssl=1","jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p61naM-AeK","jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/realitatearutiera.ro\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/139298","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/realitatearutiera.ro\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/realitatearutiera.ro\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/realitatearutiera.ro\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/realitatearutiera.ro\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=139298"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/realitatearutiera.ro\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/139298\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":139299,"href":"https:\/\/realitatearutiera.ro\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/139298\/revisions\/139299"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/realitatearutiera.ro\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/134183"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/realitatearutiera.ro\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=139298"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/realitatearutiera.ro\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=139298"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/realitatearutiera.ro\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=139298"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}